{"id":748,"date":"2025-12-31T00:39:31","date_gmt":"2025-12-30T21:39:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tabildot.com.tr\/marketrisk\/?p=748"},"modified":"2026-01-03T04:00:14","modified_gmt":"2026-01-03T01:00:14","slug":"borsa-istanbulda-2001-ile-2014-yillari-arasinda-gerceklesen-islem-bazli-manipulasyon-vakalari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tabildot.com.tr\/marketrisk\/748","title":{"rendered":"\ud83d\udd34\ud83c\uddf9\ud83c\uddf7 Borsa \u0130stanbul\u2019da 2001 ile 2014 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen i\u015flem bazl\u0131 manip\u00fclasyon vakalar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Borsa \u0130stanbul\u2019da 2001 ile 2014 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen i\u015flem bazl\u0131 manip\u00fclasyon vakalar\u0131\" width=\"858\" height=\"483\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/WBOvgIEpRUw?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h1>Borsada Manip\u00fclasyonun 4 Gizli Sinyali: Akademik Bir Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Neler S\u00f6yl\u00fcyor?<\/h1>\n<h3>Giri\u015f: Bir Hissenin Ani Y\u00fckseli\u015finin Ard\u0131ndaki Ger\u00e7ek Ne?<\/h3>\n<p>Bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 bu manzarayla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r: Bir hisse senedinin fiyat\u0131, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrde somut bir neden olmaks\u0131z\u0131n aniden ve h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flar. Bu t\u00fcr hareketler, ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131lan bir f\u0131rsat\u0131n heyecan\u0131n\u0131 ve ayn\u0131 zamanda derin bir \u015f\u00fcpheyi beraberinde getirir. Acaba bu y\u00fckseli\u015f, \u015firketin ger\u00e7ek bir ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n m\u0131 yoksa daha karanl\u0131k bir oyunun mu habercisidir?<\/p>\n<p>Bu durum her zaman organik bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme hikayesi olmayabilir. Bazen bu, piyasay\u0131 yan\u0131ltarak yapay fiyat hareketleri yaratmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan &#8220;i\u015flem bazl\u0131 manip\u00fclasyon&#8221; ad\u0131 verilen tehlikeli bir s\u00fcrecin par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r. Peki, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu tuza\u011f\u0131 nas\u0131l fark edebilir? Borsa \u0130stanbul&#8217;da 2001-2014 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda Sermaye Piyasas\u0131 Kurulu (SPK) taraf\u0131ndan tespit edilen 273 manip\u00fclasyon vakas\u0131n\u0131 inceleyen kapsaml\u0131 bir akademik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, bu sorunun cevab\u0131n\u0131 ar\u0131yor. \u0130\u015fte o ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n bulgular\u0131ndan yola \u00e7\u0131karak manip\u00fclasyonun d\u00f6rt gizli sinyali.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;<\/p>\n<h3>1. Volatilite (Oynakl\u0131k): En B\u00fcy\u00fck Tehlike \u00c7an\u0131<\/h3>\n<p>Volatilite, bir finansal varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n fiyat\u0131ndaki ani ve sert ini\u015f \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ifade eder. Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, i\u015flem bazl\u0131 manip\u00fclasyonun en belirgin ve en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015faretinin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 volatilite oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Bulgu:<\/b> Akademik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n marjinal etki analizine g\u00f6re (Tablo 5), hisse senedinin volatilitesindeki bir birimlik art\u0131\u015f, o \u015firketin manip\u00fclasyon d\u00f6neminde olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tam <b>17.5 kat<\/b> art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu, di\u011fer t\u00fcm g\u00f6stergeler aras\u0131nda en y\u00fcksek etkiye sahip olan fakt\u00f6rd\u00fcr.<\/li>\n<li><b>Analiz:<\/b> Bu bulgu son derece \u00f6nemlidir. Manip\u00fclat\u00f6rler, hisse senedi etraf\u0131nda yapay bir heyecan ve panik ortam\u0131 yaratarak fiyatlar\u0131 istedikleri y\u00f6ne \u00e7ekmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. S\u00fcrekli al\u0131m sat\u0131m emirleri, sahte haberler ve sosyal medya f\u0131s\u0131lt\u0131lar\u0131 ile beslenen bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, hisse fiyat\u0131nda normal piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyecek kadar sert ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez dalgalanmalara, yani y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa neden olur.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;<\/p>\n<h3>2. \u0130\u015flem Hacmi ve Devir H\u0131z\u0131: Yarat\u0131lan Sahte \u0130lgi<\/h3>\n<p>Bir hisse senedinin ne kadar al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 (i\u015flem hacmi) ve hisselerin ne s\u0131kl\u0131kla el de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi (devir h\u0131z\u0131), piyasan\u0131n o hisseye olan ilgisini g\u00f6sterir. Manip\u00fclat\u00f6rler, bu metrikleri yapay olarak \u015fi\u015firerek sahte bir ilgi alg\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Bulgu:<\/b> Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, manip\u00fclasyon d\u00f6nemlerinde hem i\u015flem hacminin hem de hisse senedi devir h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n, manip\u00fclasyon \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla belirgin bir \u015fekilde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tespit etmi\u015ftir. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma, \u00f6zellikle &#8220;pay senedi devir h\u0131z\u0131&#8221; de\u011fi\u015fkeninin T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;deki manip\u00fclasyon vakalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisini ilk kez test etmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><b>Analiz:<\/b> Manip\u00fclat\u00f6rler, halk aras\u0131nda &#8220;tahtay\u0131 boyamak&#8221; olarak da bilinen y\u00f6ntemle, yani kendi aralar\u0131nda s\u00fcrekli al\u0131m sat\u0131m yaparak i\u015flem hacmini yapay olarak y\u00fckseltir. Y\u00fcksek hacim ve devir h\u0131z\u0131, di\u011fer yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara hissede b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketlilik ve talep oldu\u011fu izlenimini verir. Bu sahte aktiviteye kap\u0131lan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u00fckselen trene atlamak isterken asl\u0131nda manip\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin tuza\u011f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f olurlar. Yarat\u0131lan bu sahte aktivite, hissenin fiyat grafi\u011finde do\u011frudan ilk sinyalimiz olan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa, yani volatiliteye zemin haz\u0131rlar.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;<\/p>\n<h3>3. Fiyat ve Getiri: Sert Y\u00fckseli\u015fi Sert D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Takip Eder<\/h3>\n<p>Manip\u00fclasyonun klasik senaryosu &#8220;pompala ve bo\u015falt&#8221; (pumping and dumping) d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcd\u00fcr. Fiyat \u00f6nce yapay olarak \u015fi\u015firilir, ard\u0131ndan manip\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla birlikte \u00e7ak\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Bulgu:<\/b> Analiz, manip\u00fclasyon sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde i\u015flem hacminde (X2) istatistiksel olarak anlaml\u0131 ve keskin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu\u011funu ortaya koymaktad\u0131r. G\u00fcnl\u00fck getirideki (X1) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi ise bu modelde istatistiksel olarak kan\u0131tlanamam\u0131\u015f olsa da, &#8220;pompala ve bo\u015falt&#8221; senaryosunun do\u011fas\u0131 gere\u011fi beklenen bir sonu\u00e7tur. Bu durum, manip\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin piyasadan \u00e7ekilmesiyle sahte ilginin aniden ortadan kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 somut olarak g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/li>\n<li><b>Analiz:<\/b> Yapay olarak \u015fi\u015firilen i\u015flem hacmi ve yarat\u0131lan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 volatilite, manip\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin nihai hedefine ula\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bir ara\u00e7t\u0131r: Fiyat\u0131 zirveye ta\u015f\u0131y\u0131p ellerindeki hisseleri satmak. Bu, d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn son perdesidir. Manip\u00fclat\u00f6rler, yeterince yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131y\u0131 hisseye \u00e7ektikten ve fiyat\u0131 istedikleri seviyeye getirdikten sonra, ellerindeki t\u00fcm hisseleri y\u00fcksek fiyattan satarak piyasadan \u00e7ekilirler. Bu ani ve b\u00fcy\u00fck sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131, arz-talep dengesini bozar ve hisse fiyat\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla \u00e7\u00f6kmesine neden olur. Geride, zirveden al\u0131m yapm\u0131\u015f ve b\u00fcy\u00fck zararlarla ba\u015f ba\u015fa kalm\u0131\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar kal\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;<\/p>\n<h3>4. Yasal Ger\u00e7eklik: Bu Bir Oyun De\u011fil, Su\u00e7tur<\/h3>\n<p>Piyasa manip\u00fclasyonu, sadece finansal bir risk veya etik d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir davran\u0131\u015f de\u011fildir. T\u00fcrk hukuk sisteminde a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a tan\u0131mlanm\u0131\u015f bir su\u00e7tur.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Bilgi:<\/b> 6362 say\u0131l\u0131 Sermaye Piyasas\u0131 Kanunu&#8217;nun 107. maddesi, bu eylemleri &#8220;i\u015flem bazl\u0131 piyasa doland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131&#8221; olarak tan\u0131mlar. Kanun, &#8220;sermaye piyasas\u0131 ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131na, fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimlerine, arz ve taleplerine ili\u015fkin olarak yanl\u0131\u015f veya yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 izlenim uyand\u0131rmak amac\u0131yla al\u0131m veya sat\u0131m yapanlar, emir verenler, emir iptal edenler, emir de\u011fi\u015ftirenler veya hesap hareketleri ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirenler&#8221; hakk\u0131nda net h\u00fck\u00fcmler i\u00e7erir.<\/li>\n<li><b>Yapt\u0131r\u0131m:<\/b> Bu su\u00e7u i\u015fleyenler i\u00e7in <b>2 y\u0131ldan 5 y\u0131la kadar hapis ve adli para cezas\u0131<\/b> gibi ciddi yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bu yasal \u00e7er\u00e7eve, konunun ciddiyetini ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 koruma amac\u0131n\u0131 net bir \u015fekilde ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;<\/p>\n<h3>Sonu\u00e7: Rakamlar\u0131n \u00d6tesine Bakmak<\/h3>\n<p>Bu akademik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, piyasadaki anormal hareketlerin ard\u0131ndaki dinamikleri anlamak i\u00e7in somut veriler sunuyor. A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 volatilite, yapay hacim art\u0131\u015f\u0131, ani y\u00fckseli\u015fi takip eden sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve eylemin yasad\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n dikkat etmesi gereken d\u00f6rt temel sinyaldir. Bu i\u015faretler, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n piyasadaki hareketleri daha ele\u015ftirel bir g\u00f6zle de\u011ferlendirmeleri i\u00e7in birer ara\u00e7 olabilir. Bu sinyaller tek ba\u015flar\u0131na kesin bir kan\u0131t olmasa da, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in bir &#8220;dur ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn&#8221; uyar\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r; aceleci kararlar vermeden \u00f6nce \u015firketin temel verilerini ve haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 daha derinlemesine inceleme gereklili\u011fini hat\u0131rlat\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bir dahaki sefere bir hissenin inan\u0131lmaz bir y\u00fckseli\u015fine tan\u0131k oldu\u011funuzda, rakamlar\u0131n arkas\u0131nda ne olabilece\u011fini sorgulayacak m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h1><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">\u0130\u015flem Bazl\u0131 Manip\u00fclasyonun Dinamikleri: Borsa \u0130stanbul (2001-2014) \u00dczerine Bir Analiz<\/span><\/h1>\n<h2>Y\u00f6netici \u00d6zeti<\/h2>\n<p>Bu brifing belgesi, Borsa \u0130stanbul&#8217;da (B\u0130ST) 2001-2014 d\u00f6neminde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen i\u015flem bazl\u0131 manip\u00fclasyon vakalar\u0131n\u0131 analiz eden akademik bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n temel bulgular\u0131n\u0131 ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 sentezlemektedir. Sermaye Piyasas\u0131 Kurulu (SPK) taraf\u0131ndan tespit edilmi\u015f 273 manip\u00fclasyon vakas\u0131 \u00fczerinde yap\u0131lan \u00e7oklu lojistik regresyon analizi, manip\u00fclatif faaliyet d\u00f6nemlerini karakterize eden finansal g\u00f6stergeleri net bir \u015fekilde ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n en kritik bulgular\u0131 \u015funlard\u0131r:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Belirleyici Finansal G\u00f6stergeler:<\/b> Manip\u00fclasyon d\u00f6nemleri; pay senedinin g\u00fcnl\u00fck getirisi, i\u015flem hacmi, volatilitesi ve devir h\u0131z\u0131nda istatistiksel olarak anlaml\u0131 ve belirgin art\u0131\u015flarla karakterize edilmektedir. \u0130ncelenen t\u00fcm de\u011fi\u015fkenler manip\u00fclasyonun tespitinde etkili bulunmu\u015ftur.<\/li>\n<li><b>En G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Sinyaller:<\/b> Manip\u00fclasyonun varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc iki de\u011fi\u015fken <b>volatilite<\/b> ve <b>g\u00fcnl\u00fck getiri<\/b> olarak tespit edilmi\u015ftir. \u00d6zellikle, bir pay senedinin volatilitesindeki bir birimlik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, o senedin manip\u00fclasyon d\u00f6neminde olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 <b>17.5 kat<\/b> art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 saptanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. G\u00fcnl\u00fck getirideki bir birimlik art\u0131\u015f ise bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 <b>12.62 kat<\/b> y\u00fckseltmektedir.<\/li>\n<li><b>T\u00fcrkiye \u0130\u00e7in Yeni Bir Bulgur:<\/b> \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma, daha \u00f6nce T\u00fcrkiye ba\u011flam\u0131nda incelenmemi\u015f olan <b>pay senedi devir h\u0131z\u0131<\/b> de\u011fi\u015fkeninin de manip\u00fclasyon d\u00f6nemlerinde \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve manip\u00fclasyonun tespitinde etkili bir g\u00f6sterge oldu\u011funu ilk kez ampirik olarak kan\u0131tlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><b>Model Ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 ve Tespiti:<\/b> Geli\u015ftirilen analitik model, manip\u00fclasyon vakalar\u0131n\u0131 <b>%82.5<\/b> genel do\u011fruluk oran\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rma ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. Model, manip\u00fclasyon d\u00f6nemindeki \u015firketleri %72.5, manip\u00fclasyon d\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6nemdeki \u015firketleri ise %87.6 oran\u0131nda do\u011fru tespit edebilmektedir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak, bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma piyasa d\u00fczenleyici kurumlar ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in manip\u00fclatif eylemlerin tespiti ve \u00f6nlenmesine y\u00f6nelik somut, veri odakl\u0131 bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve sunmaktad\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle volatilite ve pay senedi devir h\u0131z\u0131ndaki anormal art\u0131\u015flar, potansiyel manip\u00fclatif faaliyetler i\u00e7in birincil uyar\u0131 sinyalleri olarak de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;<\/p>\n<h3>1. Ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n Kapsam\u0131 ve Amac\u0131<\/h3>\n<p>Pay senedi piyasalar\u0131nda yapay fiyat hareketleri yaratarak adil arz-talep dengesini bozan ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcvenini zedeleyen piyasa manip\u00fclasyonu, sermaye piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n etkinli\u011fi \u00f6n\u00fcndeki en \u00f6nemli engellerden biridir. Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, manip\u00fclasyon t\u00fcrlerinden biri olan <b>i\u015flem bazl\u0131 manip\u00fclasyonun<\/b> Borsa \u0130stanbul \u00fczerindeki etkilerini incelemektedir.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Veri Seti:<\/b> \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma, 2001-2014 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda B\u0130ST&#8217;te i\u015flem g\u00f6ren ve SPK taraf\u0131ndan i\u015flem bazl\u0131 manip\u00fclasyon yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tespit edilen \u015firketlere ait <b>273 manip\u00fclasyon vakas\u0131n\u0131<\/b> kapsamaktad\u0131r. Bu vakalar\u0131n ortalama s\u00fcresi 40 g\u00fcn olarak hesaplanm\u0131\u015f olup, en k\u0131sa vaka 1 g\u00fcn, en uzun vaka ise 229 g\u00fcn s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/li>\n<li><b>Temel Ama\u00e7lar:<\/b>\n<ol>\n<li>\u0130\u015flem bazl\u0131 manip\u00fclatif eylemlerin, pay senedi getirisi, i\u015flem hacmi, volatilite ve pay senedi devir h\u0131z\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkilerini analiz etmek.<\/li>\n<li>Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 literat\u00fcrde manip\u00fclasyonla ili\u015fkisi kan\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f ancak T\u00fcrkiye piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7in daha \u00f6nce incelenmemi\u015f olan <b>pay senedi devir h\u0131z\u0131<\/b> de\u011fi\u015fkeninin etkisini ortaya koymak.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>2. Manip\u00fclasyonun Tan\u0131m\u0131 ve Yasal \u00c7er\u00e7evesi<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Akademik Tan\u0131m:<\/b> Fischel ve Ross (1991), manip\u00fclasyonu &#8220;menkul k\u0131ymetler piyasas\u0131nda olu\u015fan arz ve talebe kas\u0131tl\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde m\u00fcdahale edilmesi&#8221; olarak tan\u0131mlamaktad\u0131r. Allen ve Gale (1992) ise manip\u00fclasyonu; hareket bazl\u0131, bilgi bazl\u0131 ve i\u015flem bazl\u0131 olmak \u00fczere \u00fc\u00e7 ana kategoriye ay\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><b>Yasal \u00c7er\u00e7eve:<\/b> \u00c7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n odak noktas\u0131 olan i\u015flem bazl\u0131 manip\u00fclasyon, 6362 say\u0131l\u0131 Sermaye Piyasas\u0131 Kanunu&#8217;nun (SPKn) 107. maddesinde <b>&#8220;i\u015flem bazl\u0131 piyasa doland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131&#8221;<\/b> olarak d\u00fczenlenmi\u015ftir. Kanun, &#8220;Sermaye piyasas\u0131 ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131na, fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimlerine, arz ve taleplerine ili\u015fkin olarak yanl\u0131\u015f veya yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 izlenim uyand\u0131rmak amac\u0131yla al\u0131m veya sat\u0131m yapanlar, emir verenler, emir iptal edenler, emir de\u011fi\u015ftirenler veya hesap hareketleri ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirenler&#8221; i\u00e7in <b>2 y\u0131ldan 5 y\u0131la kadar hapis<\/b> ve be\u015f bin g\u00fcnden on bin g\u00fcne kadar adli para cezas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmektedir.<\/li>\n<li><b>Yayg\u0131n Manip\u00fclatif Y\u00f6ntemler:<\/b> Uluslararas\u0131 Menkul K\u0131ymet Komisyonlar\u0131 \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (IOSCO) taraf\u0131ndan belirlenen yayg\u0131n manip\u00fclatif y\u00f6ntemler \u015funlard\u0131r:\n<ul>\n<li>Tahtay\u0131 boyamak (painting the tape)<\/li>\n<li>Kendinden kendine i\u015flemler (wash sales)<\/li>\n<li>Pompalama ve \u015fi\u015firme (pumping and dumping)<\/li>\n<li>Pay senedinin kapan\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131n\u0131 belirleme (marking the close)<\/li>\n<li>Piyasay\u0131 k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rma (corner)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>3. Analitik Y\u00f6ntem ve Veri Seti<\/h3>\n<p>\u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada, manip\u00fclasyonun etkilerini \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in <b>\u00e7oklu lojistik regresyon analizi<\/b> kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Analiz, her bir vaka i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 ayr\u0131 d\u00f6nemi ele alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Manip\u00fclasyon \u00d6ncesi D\u00f6nem (Referans kategorisi)<\/li>\n<li>Manip\u00fclasyon D\u00f6nemi<\/li>\n<li>Manip\u00fclasyon Sonras\u0131 D\u00f6nem<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Analizde kullan\u0131lan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z de\u011fi\u015fkenler ve tan\u0131mlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tabloda \u00f6zetlenmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<table border=\"1\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>De\u011fi\u015fken Kodu<\/td>\n<td>Tan\u0131m<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>X1<\/b><\/td>\n<td>Manip\u00fcle edilmi\u015f pay senedinin ortalama g\u00fcnl\u00fck getirisi ile dahil oldu\u011fu endeksin ortalama g\u00fcnl\u00fck getirisi aras\u0131ndaki fark.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>X2<\/b><\/td>\n<td>Manip\u00fcle edilmi\u015f pay senedinin g\u00fcnl\u00fck i\u015flem hacmindeki ortalama de\u011fi\u015fim ile endeksin g\u00fcnl\u00fck i\u015flem hacmindeki ortalama de\u011fi\u015fim aras\u0131ndaki fark.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>X3<\/b><\/td>\n<td>Manip\u00fcle edilmi\u015f pay senedinin ortalama g\u00fcnl\u00fck volatilitesi ile endeksin g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama volatilitesi aras\u0131ndaki fark.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>X4<\/b><\/td>\n<td>Manip\u00fcle edilmi\u015f pay senedinin ortalama pay senedi devir h\u0131z\u0131.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h3>4. Temel Bulgular ve Analiz Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131<\/h3>\n<h4>4.1. De\u011fi\u015fkenlerin Etkisi<\/h4>\n<p>Analiz sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re, incelenen d\u00f6rt ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z de\u011fi\u015fkenin tamam\u0131, bir \u015firketin manip\u00fclasyon d\u00f6neminde olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada istatistiksel olarak %1 \u00f6nem seviyesinde anlaml\u0131 bulunmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Manip\u00fclasyon \u00d6ncesi D\u00f6neme K\u0131yasla Manip\u00fclasyon D\u00f6nemi:<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Getiri (X1) ve Volatilite (X3):<\/b> Bu iki de\u011fi\u015fkenin manip\u00fclasyon d\u00f6nemindeki bir \u015firketin olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (odds) %100&#8217;\u00fcn \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 tespit edilmi\u015ftir. Bu, manip\u00fclasyonun en belirgin etkilerinin fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve getiri anormalliklerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/li>\n<li><b>\u0130\u015flem Hacmi (X2):<\/b> Hacimdeki bir birimlik art\u0131\u015f, manip\u00fclasyon olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 <b>%92.7<\/b> oran\u0131nda art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><b>Devir H\u0131z\u0131 (X4):<\/b> Devir h\u0131z\u0131ndaki bir birimlik art\u0131\u015f, manip\u00fclasyon olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 <b>%71.8<\/b> oran\u0131nda art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><b>Manip\u00fclasyon Sonras\u0131 D\u00f6nem:<\/b> Manip\u00fclasyon sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ise getiri (X1) ve i\u015flem hacmi (X2) de\u011fi\u015fkenlerinin etkisi negatif y\u00f6nde anlaml\u0131 bulunmu\u015ftur. Bu, manip\u00fclatif eylemler sona erdi\u011finde piyasa aktivitesinin ve getiri oranlar\u0131n\u0131n manip\u00fclasyon \u00f6ncesi seviyelere g\u00f6re dahi d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>4.2. Marjinal Etkiler ve Belirleyici Fakt\u00f6rler<\/h4>\n<p>De\u011fi\u015fkenlerin bir \u015firketin manip\u00fclasyon d\u00f6nemine girme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerindeki marjinal (do\u011frudan) etkileri incelendi\u011finde, en bask\u0131n fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn volatilite oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>En Etkili De\u011fi\u015fken:<\/b> Volatilite (X3) de\u011fi\u015fkenindeki bir birimlik art\u0131\u015f, bir \u015firketin manip\u00fclasyon d\u00f6nemine girme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 <b>17.5 kat<\/b> art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><b>\u0130kinci En Etkili De\u011fi\u015fken:<\/b> Getiri (X1) de\u011fi\u015fkenindeki bir birimlik art\u0131\u015f, bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 <b>12.62 kat<\/b> art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Di\u011fer de\u011fi\u015fkenler olan i\u015flem hacmi (X2) ve devir h\u0131z\u0131 (X4) da olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131yla 0.236 kat ve 0.096 kat art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>4.3. Modelin S\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rma Ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131<\/h4>\n<p>Geli\u015ftirilen lojistik regresyon modeli, manip\u00fclasyon d\u00f6nemlerini tespit etmede y\u00fcksek bir ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 sergilemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<table border=\"1\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>G\u00f6zlenen Grup<\/td>\n<td>Tahmin Edilen Grup<\/td>\n<td>Do\u011fruluk Y\u00fczdesi<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Manip\u00fclasyon D\u00f6nemi<\/b> (273 Vaka)<\/td>\n<td>198 vaka do\u011fru s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131.<\/td>\n<td><b>%72.53<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Manip\u00fclasyon D\u0131\u015f\u0131 D\u00f6nemler<\/b> (546 Vaka)<\/td>\n<td>478 vaka do\u011fru s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131.<\/td>\n<td><b>%87.55<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Toplam<\/b> (819 G\u00f6zlem)<\/td>\n<td>676 vaka do\u011fru s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131.<\/td>\n<td><b>%82.54<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Hata Oranlar\u0131:<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><b>I. Tip Hata<\/b> (Ger\u00e7ekte manip\u00fclasyon olan bir vakan\u0131n tespit edilememesi): %25.5<\/li>\n<li><b>II. Tip Hata<\/b> (Manip\u00fclasyon olmayan bir vakan\u0131n yanl\u0131\u015fl\u0131kla manip\u00fclasyon olarak etiketlenmesi): %13.6<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><b>Testin G\u00fcc\u00fc:<\/b> Modelin manip\u00fclasyonu tespit etme g\u00fcc\u00fc (1-\u03b2) <b>%86.4<\/b> olarak hesaplanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r, bu da modelin etkinli\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>5. Sonu\u00e7 ve Stratejik \u00c7\u0131kar\u0131mlar<\/h3>\n<p>Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, Borsa \u0130stanbul&#8217;daki i\u015flem bazl\u0131 manip\u00fclasyonlar\u0131n finansal piyasa g\u00f6stergeleri \u00fczerindeki etkilerini ampirik kan\u0131tlarla ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Kan\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f Etkiler:<\/b> Manip\u00fclasyon d\u00f6nemlerinde pay senetlerinin getirisinin, volatilitesinin, i\u015flem hacminin ve devir h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n manip\u00fclasyon \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re belirgin bir \u015fekilde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bulgusu, uluslararas\u0131 literat\u00fcr\u00fc desteklemektedir.<\/li>\n<li><b>Stratejik \u00d6nem Ta\u015f\u0131yan G\u00f6sterge:<\/b> <b>Volatilite<\/b>, manip\u00fclatif giri\u015fimlerin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tespit etmede en \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fken olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. Fiyat olu\u015fum s\u00fcrecine zarar veren ve piyasa etkinli\u011fini engelleyen bu durum, d\u00fczenleyici kurumlar i\u00e7in kritik bir izleme alan\u0131d\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><b>Yeni Ke\u015fif:<\/b> T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de ilk kez bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ile etkisi s\u0131nanan <b>pay senedi devir h\u0131z\u0131<\/b> de\u011fi\u015fkeninin manip\u00fclasyon d\u00f6nemlerini tespit etmede anlaml\u0131 bir fakt\u00f6r oldu\u011funun kan\u0131tlanmas\u0131, piyasa d\u00fczenleyici kurumlara ve ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lara yeni bir analitik ara\u00e7 sunmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><b>Piyasa D\u00fczenleyicileri \u0130\u00e7in \u00c7\u0131kar\u0131mlar:<\/b> \u00c7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n bulgular\u0131, SPK gibi kurumlar\u0131n piyasa g\u00f6zetim ve denetim faaliyetlerinde kullanabilecekleri, anormal piyasa hareketlerini erken a\u015famada tespit etmeye y\u00f6nelik kantitatif sinyaller sa\u011flamaktad\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle volatilite ve devir h\u0131z\u0131ndaki ani ve y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015flar, detayl\u0131 bir inceleme i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e olu\u015fturabilir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Kitap K\u00fcnyesi (Bibliographic Citation)<br \/>\nT\u00fcrk\u00e7e: Gemici, E., Cihangir, M., &amp; Yakut, E. (2017). \u0130\u015flem Bazl\u0131 Manip\u00fclasyon: T\u00fcrkiye \u00d6rne\u011fi. Ege Akademik Bak\u0131\u015f \/ Ege Academic Review, 17(3), 369-380. doi: 10.21121\/eab.2017328403.<\/p>\n<button class=\"simplefavorite-button\" data-postid=\"748\" data-siteid=\"1\" data-groupid=\"1\" data-favoritecount=\"0\" style=\"\">Favorile <i class=<\/button>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bu akademik makale, **Borsa \u0130stanbul**\u2019da 2001 ile 2014 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen **i\u015flem bazl\u0131 manip\u00fclasyon** vakalar\u0131n\u0131 ve bu eylemlerin piyasa de\u011fi\u015fkenleri \u00fczerindeki etkilerini incelemektedir. Yazarlar, Sermaye Piyasas\u0131 Kurulu taraf\u0131ndan tespit edilen 273 vakay\u0131 **\u00e7oklu lojistik regresyon** y\u00f6ntemiyle analiz ederek manip\u00fclasyonun hisse senedi getirisi, i\u015flem hacmi ve oynakl\u0131k \u00fczerindeki sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koymaktad\u0131r. Ara\u015ft\u0131rma bulgular\u0131, manip\u00fclasyon d\u00f6nemlerinde **g\u00fcnl\u00fck getiri** ve **volatilitenin** ciddi oranda artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bu durumun piyasa etkinli\u011fine ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcvenine zarar verdi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. Ayr\u0131ca \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, T\u00fcrkiye ba\u011flam\u0131nda **hisse senedi devir h\u0131z\u0131** de\u011fi\u015fkeninin manip\u00fclasyon \u00fczerindeki etkisini ilk kez test ederek literat\u00fcre katk\u0131 sa\u011flamaktad\u0131r. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, yapay fiyat hareketlerinin engellenmesi ve adil bir piyasa yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n korunmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bu t\u00fcr usuls\u00fczl\u00fcklerin erkenden saptanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemi vurgulanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Kitap K\u00fcnyesi (Bibliographic Citation)<br \/>\nT\u00fcrk\u00e7e: Gemici, E., Cihangir, M., &#038; Yakut, E. (2017). \u0130\u015flem Bazl\u0131 Manip\u00fclasyon: T\u00fcrkiye \u00d6rne\u011fi. Ege Akademik Bak\u0131\u015f \/ Ege Academic Review, 17(3), 369-380. doi: 10.21121\/eab.2017328403.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":764,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[181],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-748","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makaleozetleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tabildot.com.tr\/marketrisk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/748","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tabildot.com.tr\/marketrisk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tabildot.com.tr\/marketrisk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tabildot.com.tr\/marketrisk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tabildot.com.tr\/marketrisk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=748"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/tabildot.com.tr\/marketrisk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/748\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":805,"href":"https:\/\/tabildot.com.tr\/marketrisk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/748\/revisions\/805"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tabildot.com.tr\/marketrisk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/764"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tabildot.com.tr\/marketrisk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=748"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tabildot.com.tr\/marketrisk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=748"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tabildot.com.tr\/marketrisk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=748"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}