BIST 30 Market Analysis and Candlestick Trading Signals

Executive Summary

The BIST 30 Index (XU030) has officially shifted to a bearish stance, triggering a confirmed SELL (SAT) signal as of the current reporting period. This shift follows a 2.66% rise since the previous “BUY” recommendation five days prior. The confirmation of a Doji Star Bearish pattern, with the index closing at 15616 (below the 15693 confirmation level), suggests that the market has either reached a peak or is entering a correction phase.

While the broader index indicates a downward trend, the performance of individual blue-chip stocks is varied:

• Sell Signals (SAT): Major entities including EREGL, FROTO, GUBRF, ISCTR, SAHOL, TCELL, and TOASO have triggered sell signals due to the confirmation of various bearish reversal patterns.
• Hold Positions (SENETTE KAL): A significant portion of the index, including AEFES, BIMAS, EKGYO, GARAN, KCHOL, and THYAO, remains in a “Stay in Stock” status. However, many of these are showing new bearish patterns (e.g., Engulfing Bearish) that may soon trigger sell signals if downward trends are confirmed.
• Cash Positions (NAKİTTE KAL): Stocks such as AKBNK, ASELS, ASTOR, and PETKM are currently advised to remain in cash, as confirmed downward trends persist or bullish confirmations have not yet materialized.

Investors are advised to monitor intraday price movements closely, as the “Market Strength” appears exhausted, and a consensus toward a downward trajectory is forming among market participants.

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BIST 30 Index (XU030) Market Sentiment

The BIST 30 Index experienced a daily return of -1.34%, closing at 15616. The technical analysis system has transitioned from a “BUY” (issued 12/02/2026) to a SELL signal.

Key Technical Indicators:

• Pattern: Doji Star Bearish (Doji Yıldız Ayı).
• Confirmation Level: 15693 (Current price is below this level).
• Average Selling Value: 15633.
• Analysis: The trend is shifting from bullish to bearish. The exhaustion of market strength indicates that traders are reaching a consensus on a downward move. Long positions are recommended to be closed based on the strength of the current evidence.

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Detailed Stock Analysis and Trading Signals

1. Confirmed Sell (SAT) Signals

The following stocks have met the criteria for a confirmed exit from the market:

Ticker	Daily Return	Pattern	Analysis Conclusion
EREGL	-3.32%	Dark Cloud Cover (Kara Bulut)	Confirmation occurred as price fell below 29.58. A top has likely been formed.
FROTO	-4.84%	Three Gapping Up Bearish	Market is in an overbought position; downward reversal is prepared.
GUBRF	-4.24%	Engulfing Bearish (Yutan Ayı)	Current price is below the 540.50 confirmation level.
ISCTR	-1.35%	Harami Bearish (Hamile Ayı)	Price fell below 17.68; market strength is depleted.
SAHOL	-2.31%	Advance Block (Durup Düşünme)	Bearish sentiment is confirmed; price is below 112.00 confirmation level.
TCELL	-1.18%	Three Gapping Up Bearish	Confirmed sell; current price (126.00) is below 126.75 confirmation level.
TOASO	-3.73%	Advance Block (Durup Düşünme)	Downward correction is imminent; price is below 343.38 confirmation level.

2. Stay in Stock (SENETTE KAL) Positions

These stocks are still held, though several exhibit warning signs of impending reversals.

• High Performers (Since previous BUY signal):
  • DSTKF (+61.78%): Despite a “Shooting Star Bearish” pattern, the market remains under bull control; the price is far from the confirmation level.
  • TTKOM (+23.41%): Bullish sentiment remains despite a “Black Crow” pattern.
  • AEFES (+20.79%): Strong bull control persists.
  • SISE (+19.42%): A “Kicking Bearish” pattern has appeared, but the hold signal remains for now.
• Stocks with Emerging Bearish Patterns: The following stocks have triggered “Stay in Stock” signals but show new bearish patterns that require intraday monitoring:
  • BIMAS, ENKAI, GARAN, MGROS, TAVHL: Engulfing Bearish (Yutan Ayı).
  • KCHOL: Evening Star (Akşam Yıldızı).
  • PGSUS, YKBNK: Harami Bearish (Hamile Ayı).
  • SASA: Black Crow (Siyah Karga).

3. Stay in Cash (NAKİTTE KAL) Positions

Investors are advised to remain on the sidelines for these equities:

• AKBNK (-0.67%): Displays a “Harami Bullish” pattern. While it signals “Be Alert,” it is not yet a BUY signal as the price has not crossed the confirmation level.
• ASELS (-0.84%): No pattern found. The downward trend is solid; current prices validate the previous sell signal.
• ASTOR (-0.73%): No pattern found. Bears remain dominant.
• PETKM (-1.95%): Triggered an “Upward Stoploss” but remains in cash status as the bullish momentum is fading.
• TRALT (+0.37%): No pattern found. The market remains under bear control.

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Candlestick Pattern Glossary and Interpretations

Based on the source data, the following patterns are currently influencing market signals:

• Engulfing Bearish (Yutan Ayı): A large black body completely “engulfs” the previous small white body. A significant top-reversal signal.
• Harami Bearish (Hamile Ayı): A small black body (the “baby”) is contained within the boundaries of a large white body (the “mother”). Indicates a potential reversal.
• Doji Star Bearish: A white candle followed by a Doji that gaps upward. Signals the end of a trend.
• Dark Cloud Cover (Kara Bulut): A two-candle reversal where the second candle opens higher but closes below the midpoint of the first candle’s white body.
• Three Gapping Up (Üç Yukarı Boşluk): Four-day reversal pattern where three consecutive days gap up, leading to an overbought state.
• Advance Block (Durup Düşünme): Three consecutive white candles with higher closes, often indicating the exhaustion of an upward trend.
• Kicking Bearish (Tepen Mumlar): A white Marubozu followed by a black Marubozu that gaps downward.

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Conclusion

The analysis indicates a broad transition toward a bearish market environment for the BIST 30 Index. While several individual stocks continue to hold significant gains from earlier in the year, the emergence of confirmed “SAT” signals in major industrial and financial stocks (EREGL, ISCTR, FROTO) suggests a period of cooling or correction. Market participants are encouraged to utilize the “Gecikmeli Gün İçi Modül” (Delayed Intraday Module) to manage risks, particularly for stocks currently in “Stay in Stock” status that show bearish potential.